Having an idea of how many votes you need to secure at the polls is a great advantage when it comes to planning your field and outreach activities for an upcoming political campaign. It will help decide how many doors you need to knock and help you when laying out targets for your volunteers.
So what maths must we do to understand how many votes we need to get elected?
We use a simple formula that we call the Vote Calculator to help us determine how many votes will be necessary to see someone win an election.
You need to understand the following stats to help you get the total:
Electorate size : 12000
Turnout percentage: Around the 65% mark
Once you have gathered these figures, you can begin to make a rough estimation. We can deduce that 7800 people voted on average in the last 3 election (65% of the 12000 electorate).
To win an election you need 50% of the votes cast plus 1.
That is 3901 votes according to our example above.
This will help in your initial canvassing plans and your GOTV operations close to election day.