What To Expect From Super Tuesday

Trump Keeps Winning

Donald Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination is certainly a headline many never thought they’d see.

People scoffed at the prospect of having a real estate mogul leading the Republican charge to the White House in November, but after securing his 3rd straight win in 2016, Trump is having the last laugh. Like a Cheshire cat, his smirk continues to widen while his detractors remain puzzled.

New Hampshire, S.Carolina and now, Nevada, Trump is proving that he can walk the walk, as well as, talk the talk. With Super Tuesday looming and the rest of the Republican field playing for scraps, it finally feels like it is Trump’s race to lose.

His momentum will take him into the 11 state elections brimming with confidence, but who exactly is supporting Trump? Polling beyond 30% in some states, Jon Meacham, the Editor at Random House spoke to MSNBC about how Trump’s polling is a cause of consternation in Tennessee as highly established Republican party members stated they “didn’t know anyone who was for him”.

Built on the backs of working-class men and women who feel abandoned, economically and culturally, Trump’s coalition has both brought in new voters and carved out support from the Cruz and Rubio camps. Trump won over evangelicals from Cruz in South Carolina, and even more resoundingly again in Nevada. He then took moderates from the mainstream in New Hampshire and Nevada en route to landslide victories in three consecutive states. And yet people are still mystified.

So he may win, and keep on winning, but if the GOP don’t feel he’s worth the risk will they back someone else? Stranger things have happened.

In order to win the nomination, a candidate must secure at least 1,237 of the 2,472 delegates that are up for grabs. But not all of them will be won during the state-by-state series of caucuses and primaries that will take place during the first half of 2016. Of the total of 2,472 Republican delegates, 437 of them are unpledged delegates – and 168 of those are members of the Republican National Committee. And unless you have been hiding under a rock somewhere, you already know that the Republican National Committee is not a fan of Donald Trump.

The Trouble with Tuesday

It undoubtedly plays into the hands of the heavily backed, well-funded candidates, sorry Bernie! The battle at the ballot box will probably be won by Trump and Clinton, with Cruz also hoping for a good win in Texas.

Sanders could actually feel the bern next week due to his political style of personal grassroots interaction being stretched too thin across several states. He already is struggling to capitalise on his underdog persona after suffering defeats in Iowa and Nevada. Faced with another defeat in South Carolina on the 27th of Feb, Sanders is cutting his time between more competitive states which will go to the ballot after Tuesday.

Coined the SEC primary because 5 of the new states involved (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas and Tennessee) all have teams that play in the Southwestern Conference of collegiate sports, will be crucial to weeding out the weak candidates for once and for all. Expect to see a Carson and Kasich final performance next week, if not due to poor results but perhaps because of financial pressure.

All in all, the results of Super Tuesday will give America a much clearer picture of who has the greatest chance of making it to a one-on-one race for a chance to be the next president of the United States.